Headline: Conservatives Overtake Reform UK as Main Opposition in New Ipsos Poll

Date: 17 October 2026

Tags: UK Politics, Conservative Party, Reform UK, Opinion Polls

Summary:

- New Ipsos polling shows 35% of voters view the Conservatives as Labour's main challenger, compared with 32% for Reform UK.

- This marks the Conservatives' first lead on this measure since Ipsos began tracking it in May 2025.

- Reform UK previously led the Conservatives by 28 percentage points in May and 10 points in August.

- Ipsos political director Keiran Pedley attributed the changing political landscape partly to Reform UK's recent difficulties and Labour's recovery.

- Reform UK faces investigations and controversies involving donations, alleged discriminatory remarks and internal party conduct.

- Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch's recent party conference included pledges on inheritance tax, prison capacity and youth employment.

- Conservative peer Lord Hayward warned that another four to six weeks would be needed to assess whether the improvement lasts.

- The proportion considering Badenoch likely to become prime minister increased from 24% last year to 32%.

- The equivalent figure for Nigel Farage declined from 50% in May to 33% in the latest polling.

- Prime Minister Andy Burnham was considered likely to win the next election by 43% of respondents, compared with 33% disagreeing.

Why this matters: The findings suggest the Conservatives are recovering their position as Labour's principal perceived challenger, potentially reshaping competition on the political right. However, perceptions of the main opposition do not necessarily translate into voting intentions or election results.

What’s next: Further polling will help establish whether the Conservatives' improvement represents a sustained shift or a temporary post-conference increase. Reform UK will also face continued scrutiny over ongoing investigations and internal controversies