Headline: IMF Cuts UK Growth Forecast as Iran War Raises Recession Risks
- Apr 14
- 1 min read
Why this matters: Lower growth, higher inflation and rising unemployment could increase pressure on households, businesses and government finances.
Date: 14 April 2026
Tags: UK, Economy, Business
Summary:
IMF cut UK growth forecast for 2026 from 1.3% to 0.8%.
UK growth forecast for 2027 was reduced from 1.5% to 1.3%.
IMF said inflation is now expected to be higher than previously forecast.
UK inflation is projected to average 3.2% in 2026.
Inflation is forecast to ease to 2.4% in 2027.
UK unemployment is projected to rise to 5.6% in 2026 from 4.9% in 2025.
IMF said escalating conflict involving Iran risks pushing the global economy off course.
Oil and gas prices have risen since fighting intensified and Hormuz supplies were disrupted.
Petrol prices have risen 19%, while diesel prices have increased by more than one-third.
IMF warned global recession could become a close call if conflict escalates further.
Why this matters: Lower growth, higher inflation and rising unemployment could increase pressure on households, businesses and government finances.
What’s next: Future forecasts will depend on whether the conflict escalates further and whether energy supplies stabilise.
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